Why Movies Yield Better Research Than Photographs

"I checked the actuarial tables, and the lowest death rate is among six-year-olds," Buffett told Fortune. "So I decided to eat like a six-year-old."

Warren Buffett was joking. I think. Warren is a dichotomy. On one hand he is considered one of the brightest minds in the investment community. On the other, his reported diet is close to what a six year would choose, if given the option. Coca-Cola and ice cream for breakfast and Dairy Queen for every thing else.

But I chose this quote for another reason. it shows the danger of acting on simple research. Taken at face value, Warren has a point. The research clearly shows that six year olds have the lowest death rate and based on the "research", a decision has been made and acted upon. Marketers do this everyday.

"It doesn't do any good to sit up and take notice if all you do is keep on sitting."

Observe, record, extract truths and act. Marketing research. But actions based on acts of single event research are dangerous. It is like reviewing a photograph and making a decision based on the information contained in the photograph. What isn't included in the photograph may be more important than what is included. The more accurate method of decision making is to take a string of photographs (research snapshots) and string them together in a movie so you can identify developing trends, then develop your reaction accordingly.

"The very best marketing comes from observing consumer behavior and inserting your message into their behavior."

I have found that the best research is ongoing research. With digital marketing campaigns, I am frequently asked is "what is a good click through rate?" And my response is the same. It doesn't matter.

We are going to measure the movie, not the snapshot, and act accordingly. One of the most powerful aspects of digital marketing lies in the ability to report the ongoing results and optimize the campaign based on the results (research). If your current click through rate is 0.06% (snapshot), then our job is to make changes based on this information to improve the results. So you optimize the campaign by reviewing the web sites you are running on, dropping the poor performers and moving money to sites that are performing, you A/B test the creative, you A/B test the landing pages. In short you "observe consumer behavior and insert your message into their behavior".

And then you measure again. And make improvements again. Optimization does not have to be based on Click Through Rates. It can be based on any KPI. Cost Per Conversion, Cost Per Click. But the decision making should be based on the direction of the campaign results.

Are your decisions making the campaign results better?

Consumer Behavior - Key Metrics By Device

"The very best marketing comes from observing consumer behavior and inserting your message into their behavior."

Whether you operate a YMCA or other business, mobile is here to stay.  What is not certain is whether or not the desktop will be here in any measurable way in five years.  Mobile marketing will dominate website access because consumers are in control. Simply put, consumers are buying mobile devices, not PCs.

PC sales peaked in 2011 at 350 million units worldwide after 29 years of sales (since 1983). Seven years after launch, smartphones and tablets have sold more than 1.2 billion units.

On June 29th, 2007 the iPhone was introduced to the world. Today one third of all high school students have an iPhone.  

eMarketer has just published their Chart of the Week showing Key Metrics by Device for the 4th quarter of 2014. 

Based on the 2014 holiday selling system, it confirms what we already suspected.  

Mobile devices now account for 44.3% of all web traffic, but 75% of revenue still comes from desktop devices.  There is something comfortable about the desktop when it comes to placing an online order.

But the tablet is rapidly becoming a device of choice. Average time of site for a tablet (a sign of engagement) is 4:34 versus 4:38 for the desktop. The average pages per visit gap is also tightening up - 8.3 pages for the desktop, versus 7.3 for the tablet.  And the bounce rate for desktops is 33% versus 37% for the tablet.

Is it possible that consumers are doing the research on a tablet and then placing the order on the desktop?  Maybe not.  The average order value on a desktop is $133.17 and $131.07 for the tablet.  

I suspect that by the fourth quarter of 2015, the tablet may be clear winner, especially since tablet and "phablets" continue to outsell the traditional desktops.

Smartphones generate twice the traffic of tablets, but slightly less revenue than the tablet.  This supports the notion that consumers are using smartphones as research devices while visiting stores and shops. This is another trend that will change as the consumer feels more secure about retail transactions on mobile devices.  

The lesson to be learned?  Mobile commerce is here. You have no choice - your website must be mobile friendly and increasingly this means responsive web design.

Or your business will be left behind.  "Mutability is life's sole constant."

Was He Just An Idiot Or Is It A Generational Thing?

It started with me needing a pair of pants on a Saturday afternoon. My wife and I stopped at a national chain store, specializing in men's fashion. I had been receiving emails from them with tempting offers for months.

I found the style I liked in black, in my size and asked if they had the same pair in grey or charcoal.

"Not in your size, but I can order them directly from the warehouse and have them shipped to your house by this coming Wednesday!"

Overall I was impressed with my first visit with this brand. Nice selection of clothing that I would wear. Friendly, hands on customer service. Until Wednesday. No pants. Well with all the weather problems, I gave them the benefit of the doubt. I wasn't sure where the pants were shipping from, but I understood that the Arctic freight train running over much of the nation could have easily disrupted the normal chains of distribution.

Another week passed. No pants. Armed with my receipt, I called the store. I should have known this was not going to be easy - the store's phone number was not on the shipping order. Fortunately Google knew it.

"Dave" answered the phone and I told him my problem. "Do you have your receipt?" Yes. Right here in my hands. "Do you see the order number at the top?" Yes. "Read it to me. No wait. It would be easier if you called our 800 number and told them the problem."

No offense, but I didn't buy the pants from an 800 number or website. I bought the pants from you. In the store.

"I know, but trust me, it will be easier if 'we' do it this way. Hold on a minute and I'll get the number."

Easier for whom?

But apparently the only way I was going to get the pants was to call the number. So I did.

15 minutes later, I learned the following... The 800 number did not have a record of my order. The 800 number did not have a record of me as a client - even after I provided the store address, transaction number, associate number, order number off the receipt, my phone number and email address.

"I will have to kick this up a level to my supervisor and see why we don't have this order. Then my supervisor will send you an email within 24 to 48 hours letting you know what we find out."

"Actually, will you have your supervisor call me? I would like to get this resolved and I don't want to have to sort through emails looking for a response."

"It would be easier if we just send you an email..."

Easier for whom?

I am 99.9% certain that both of the individuals I dealt with on this issue are of a younger generation than I am.

At some level we were not communicating. I asked myself, is this a generational issue or training issue? Is it possible that this is an example of the company's best customer service practices? From my point of view, I did not receive the a satisfactory level of service relative to the amount of money I exchanged for a pair of pants (actually three pairs). Or at least the promise of a pair of pants.

And these issues go in both directions. I suspect that "David" was equally frustrated with me. Perhaps he thought providing me with an 800 number was great customer service. So was Megan, the 800 Number Operator. It was as if we were speaking two different languages. What I expected in a sales relationship differed from what they expected in a sales relationship.

So I will work harder to match the expectations of individuals in other generations and not allow our differences to get under my skin. However, it would be nice if they took a step or two in my direction.

"People do business with people, not businesses."

PS. A voice mail message is waiting for me. "Mr. Davis, this is Anne from XYZ company. I am so sorry about your pants. We have been closed for days due to the heavy snow. Your pants are in route and they will be there on Friday. Once again I am so, so sorry. If you have any questions, here is my phone number..."

I would know that generation anywhere.

Goodbye Menu Navigation

"Ok, grab a clean sheet of paper and let's write down everything we want in our new demo website."

"What's paper?"

That's not the exactly the way the meeting started, but you get the point. Technology is changing so fast, some days it is difficult to keep track of what is available and what is not.  Thrive IM is in the beginning of designing the next generation YMCA website.  A group of us were gathered around the conference room trying to beat John to the pizza.  

On the wall we were staring at the existing demo site on the 60" monitor. The problem we were discussing was navigation and sub-navigation.  From a user's perspective, how should the navigation flow?  What is the most logical progression that would let the site visitor find the information they needed in the most efficient manor? Horizontal navigation or vertical?  Fanned sub-nav or accordion?  

"I think we are looking at this from the wrong perspective.  We already know that traffic to YMCA websites is mirroring traffic to other sites.  More than 50% of existing website traffic to YMCA websites now comes from smartphones and tablets. The question we should be asking is how can consumers find the content they seek on a smartphone?"

And suddenly the answer was there.  Search.  Voice search.  You reach your local YMCA site and have a choice.  Start reading menu options and clicking on the navigation icon you "think" will reveal the answer, or...

Tap the microphone icon and ask the web site "When does summer camp start?" And almost instantly your smartphone takes you to the information you want on your local YMCA website .  Almost Watson-like, it reports "there is a 93% chance that the answer you seek is Friday, June 13th.  Would you like to register now?"

Sometimes we forget that a smartphone is still a phone.